The market moved. Has your order list?
The global toy market was worth about US$123 billion in 2025, up 8% year on year. That headline hides a bigger story: the buyers, the categories and the compliance rules have all shifted. For importers and distributors working with a toy manufacturer in China, 2026 rewards those who read the data early. Here is what actually changed — and the questions to ask before you place a trial order.
Three numbers that explain 2026
US toy sales grew 13% through April 2026. Games and puzzles rose 39%, explorative toys 36%, and building sets 20%. Meanwhile, adults aged 18 and over generated 35% of that growth, and adult-only households now account for more than half of US toy sales.
At the same time, China’s toy exports fell 11.3% in the first half of 2026, to US$15.6 billion. Fewer orders, placed with fewer suppliers. That is consolidation — and it is good news for buyers who choose carefully.
Trend 1 — Kidult is the growth engine
Toys are no longer only for children. Collectible figures, blind boxes, licensed plush and “desk toys” now make up more than a quarter of global toy sales. The clearest signal came in June 2026, when Pop Mart’s Labubu appeared at the FIFA World Cup opening ceremony — the first original Chinese IP ever invited to the event.
For importers this means plush toys, plush bag charms and display-ready premium packaging are worth adding to the mix. So is licensed merchandise built around major sports and film moments, which moves fastest when the drop timing is right.
Trend 2 — Educational, screen-free and modular
Parents are buying fewer toys but better ones. Screen fatigue is real: hands-on products such as building blocks, magnetic tiles, marble runs and science kits are winning shelf space. Building sets alone grew 20% in the US this year.
Educational toys, STEM kits and Montessori-style lines are no longer a niche — they are the safest repeat purchase in the category. Modular systems that expand over time also cut the “one-and-done” risk that makes retailers cautious. Pretend play sets — kitchen, doctor and doll house — remain steady sellers in the Gulf, where demand peaks around Eid and Ramadan gifting seasons.
Trend 3 — Electronic and AI toys: bigger opportunity, bigger paperwork
RC toys and electronic toys remain a strong wholesale category, and AI-enabled companion toys are the fastest-growing segment in China, where the market is projected to exceed RMB 100 billion (about US$14 billion) by 2030. But the rules are tightening. China introduced new oversight for AI companion services in April 2026, focused on data security and the protection of minors.
If you source battery or electronic toys, request electrical safety test reports up front and confirm that shipping documentation is ready before production, not after.
Trend 4 — Packaging is now a purchasing criterion
In Europe, the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation is pushing brands toward recyclable, reduced-plastic designs. Elsewhere, buyers increasingly ask for recycled or bio-based materials. A factory that can quote a mono-material retail box is suddenly more competitive than one that only offers blister packs. Compliance and shelf appeal now travel together.
Compliance is the real filter
Whichever market you sell into, certification decides whether your container clears customs.
| Market | What you need |
| EU / UK | EN 71, EN 62115, CE marking, PPWR-ready packaging |
| GCC | G-Mark, Saudi SABER (PCoC and SCoC), Arabic retail labelling |
| USA | ASTM F963, CPSIA (CPC), Prop 65 where applicable |
| Global baseline | ISO 8124, third-party lab reports |
Ask for these documents before you pay a deposit — not when the goods are already on the water.
Seven questions to ask a China toy factory
- Are you the manufacturer or a trading company?
- Which certifications do you already hold, and which lab tests your products?
- What is your real MOQ — and will you accept a trial order?
- Can you do OEM and ODM, including tooling and prototyping?
- Can you handle custom packaging plus Arabic or English retail labels?
- Do you support mixed containers, and can you load a full container?
- How fast can you return a costed quotation?
A serious factory answers all seven within 24 hours.
FAQ
Where are most toys made in China? Chenghai, in Shantou, Guangdong, is China’s largest plastic toy manufacturing cluster, alongside Dongguan for building sets and Yiwu for small plastic toys.
What is the minimum order for wholesale toys from China? Most factories start at 500 to 1,000 pieces per item, depending on tooling and packaging. Trial orders are often negotiable for first-time buyers.
Why have China’s toy exports fallen in 2026? Softer consumer confidence in Europe and the US, plus global trade policy uncertainty. Volume is down, but demand for certified, higher-value toys is holding up.
The takeaway
Falling exports do not mean falling demand — they mean weaker suppliers are leaving the market. The factories still standing are the ones with certification, tooling and export documentation already in place. Choose that kind of partner, and 2026 is a year of share gain rather than survival.
Talk to our export team for a costed quote within 24 hours.
